Everyone folds KK here, right? - Poker Strategy - Poker Forum

There are a few possibilities here.

He smooth called you preflop with position on you, but still in fair early position.

I think a lot of players would do this with low to medium pocket pairs, maybe anything up to JJ.

If he has QQ or AA here, I think he has to raise. By just calling he is giving everyone behind him decent enough odds to see a flop and try to catch something in position. At this point the pot is 570 and it's only another 180 for the BB to call. And he does.

But I also believe any 2 suited broadways are within his range. Especially something like ATs or AJs.

Now the flop comes, and the BB bets 180 into a pot of 750. You being the original raiser preflop, obviously can't just call here, so you repop the idiotic bet.

Now action is to larylar23. He has seen what has happened here. The flop was fairly benign, nothing that really fits into your range opening UTG, and it is unlikely that the BB's bet suggested any real strength. But, the pot is now over 1500, and it is 655 more to call.

If he puts you on AK, JJ, QQ, this would be a perfect chance to float you. You either missed entirely, or the next card off could scare you off the pot. If the board, pairs, if a third diamond comes or if any broadway card comes.

If he had flopped a set, with all that action in front of him, I have to think that he would raise there. With the 2 diamonds out there and 2 people betting and raising, I have to think he raises there with a strong hand. Just calling there would be giving the BB great odds to call and chase the flush, and with the bet he made, that is exactly what it seems like.

But if I didn't hit a set, I would be calling here with a pretty wide range waiting to see if it is checked to me on the turn.

On the turn, the board pairs and bring a second club. And it checks to him.

He fires almost the pot.

Still, the pot is fairly benign. The second deuce probably didn't help him. But if it did, if he filled up on the turn. What would he do? Fire the pot so no one has the odds to chase the flush? That would not be a smart play at all. The last thing you want is to chase anyone out of the pot if you are holding the nuts. Especially when it is checked to you. Obviously no one is looking to check-raise there after the deuce came off.

With a bet that big, I say there is no way he has a boat. No way he called with any hand that involved the deuce.

What this actually looks like is, he called preflop with something like AT, maybe JT, maybe suited broadsway. Then, he flopped either top pair, or 2 overs to go with the nut flush draw. He is getting about the right odds to call the flop with the flush draw. Or even if he had just top pair, your raise doesn't necessarily mean you have a huge hand. You have to raise there.

Now on the turn, he may have had either ATc and now has TPTK with the nut flush draw or even AQd.

When it checks to him on the turn, he has to believe everyone is weak since the deuce wasn't really a scare card.

So he fires the pot in order to protect his top pair, which he believes is still best. Or, he just has 2 overs and the flush draw and still has outs if anyone calls.

For him, firing that bet on the turn only has to work half the time to be profitable.

It looked liked the BB bet small trying to see a cheap turn with a draw, and then missed. It looked like you put in the obvious raise. But then you couldn't fire again on the turn with air with someone calling after you.

So now it goes like this…

The probability of his hands:

AA – 15%
AK/AQ/KQ sooted (clubs or diamonds) – 30%
99/JJ/QQ – 20%
Tx sooted – 20%
TT/88/22 – 5%
AIR – 10%

Now, the odds of you beating each group:

KK vs AA – 5%
KK vs Axs – 73%
LL vs >= 9Ts – 77%
KK vs <= QQ – 95%
KK vs >= 88 – 3% (drawing dead vs 22)
KK vs AIR = 100%

Now we multiply our chances of beating those hands, by the chances he holds them.

5% x 15% = 1%
35% x 73% = 26%
20% x 77% = 15%
30% x 95% = 29%
5% x 3% = 1%
10% x 100% = 10%

Now we add all those up.

The sum is 82%

And you don't need to calculate the pot odds to know that this is an easy call. In fact, I would probably shove. Just in case he does have some sort of draw, you can at least get a little fold equity.